Investors Who Manage $7.2 Trillion Worth Of Assets Reveal What They Think Will Happen To Europe [1]

BUSINESS INSIDER 

MONEY GAME    

Mamta Badkar [2]  Aug. 20, 2012, 10:11 AM 

 Fitch surveyed 100 respondents that represent $7.2 trillion of fixed income [3] assets, on their concerns about the eurozone. Here's what they found on chances of a double-dip recession and a eurozone break-up:

• 80 percent said the risk of a double dip recession is high, up from 68 percent in the last survey. 
• 53 percent think "fundamental conditions for banks will deteriorate".
• 82 percent think banks will need another long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) within the next two years.
• 5 percent think the eurozone will break up, while 33 percent think it will move towards a fiscal union.
• 9 percent think there will be multiple sovereign debt defaults but do not expect it to cause a break-up.
• 21 percent think Greece and one or two other countries could exit the union.

This chart shows what respondents think are the biggest risks to the European credit markets:

 

 

Note:  73% of respondents were credit portfolio decision makers on the buy side in western Europe, being either senior bond department heads, portfolio managers, or heads of fixed-income research teams. 27% were senior credit analysts, strategists or credit risk managers.