In the last 15 minutes I have changed this blog headline a few times from various forms of likely winner for New Democracy to “winner”.

The key news now is that it still depends on Pasok , which has stated unwillingness to enter into a coalition with New Democracy and refused to do so in the last election. The difference this time is that Syriza has a strong chance of forming a coalition if New Democracy fails.

From The Guardian Greek Live Election Coverage.

7.53pm: Horsetrading between the parties has begun:

Pasok has been publicly stating that it will not join any coalition without Syriza.

Pro-EU New Democracy on the other hand has been talking on Sky News about a “grand coalition”.

Panos Kammenos, leader of the Independent Greeks, a right-wing party that could have been in line to ally with New Democracy has told the press that the party is keen to support a government that will condemn the bailout agreements – that would in effect rule out a deal with New Democracy.

7.36pm: The official projection figures for the election have now been announced by Greece’s interior ministry. Greek pollster, Marika Lambrou, said this:

There will be seven parties in the next parliament, as was the case on 6 May. There will be no upset in the order of the parties but there has been a “considerable increase” in the number of votes for the two leading parties.

New Democracy will receive 29.53% of the vote, equivalent to 128 seats.
Syriza will receive 27.12% – 72 seats.
Pasok will receive 12.2% – 23 seats.
Independent Greeks will receive 7.56% – 20 seats.
Golden Dawn will receive 6.95% – 18 seats.
Democratic Left will receive 6.23% – 17 seats.
Greek Communist Party will receive 4.47% – 12 seats.

Unless Pasok is willing to enter into a coalition government, there is no coalition with New Democracy possible.

Then it would be up to Syriza to form a coalition. Mentally subtract 50 seats from New Democracy and add then to Syriza, giving Syriza 122 seats. A coalition with Pasok and either the Independent Greeks or the Democratic Left would be possible, if not likely.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com link to original article