AURORAS OVER THE SOUTH POLE: On July 10th, observers are reporting butterfly-shaped auroras directly over the South Pole. The shape of the southern auroral oval often leaves the South Pole in a "doughnut hole" of poor visibility, but today is an exception. [aurora gallery]

NORTHERN LIGHTS: For the second day in a row, Earth's polar magnetic field is unsettled and glowing with auroras. Paul Zizka sends this picture from Banff National Park in Alberta, Canada:

"Yet another sleepless night at Lake Minnewanka--and it was worth it," says Zizka. "The aurora danced on and off for hours. Most of the time it was barely visible to the naked eye, but now and then Mother Nature would put on a show that was hard to miss. The displays ranged from a very interesting, long-lasting pink streak directly overhead to wild green curls and purple pillars to the north and east."

HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. X-flare alerts: text, voice.

INCOMING CME: On July 4th, sunspot AR1515 hurled at least four minor CMEs into space. Most flew south of the ecliptic plane (the orbital plane of the planets), on track to miss everything. One of them, however, appears to be heading toward Earth. Click to view an animated forecast track of the incoming cloud:

According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the forecast, the cloud will reach Earth on July 7th around 0600 UT. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on that date. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

Thunder Moon” ~ July 3, 2012

ALMOST X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1515 erupted on July 2nd at 10:52 UT, producing an M5.6-class solar flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

A pulse of x-rays and UV radiation from the flare illuminated Earth's upper atmosphere, producing waves of ionization over Europe. Such waves alter the propagation of low-frequency radio transmissions. In Lofoten, Norway, Rob Stammes recorded the ionospheric disturbance using a 60 kHz receiver: data.

The eruption also hurled a CME into space, but not directly toward Earth. The south-traveling cloud could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetosphere on July 4th or 5th. Stay tuned for updates. [SDO movie]